Home » BofA Warns Current Price Moves Are Typical of Bubbly Markets

BofA Warns Current Price Moves Are Typical of Bubbly Markets

A rare rally in both tech stocks and commodities, combined with a jump in bond yields, has echoes of periods when bubbles are forming, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.

The unusual price moves are consistent with bets that interest rates will stay higher for longer while economic growth remains strong — a so-called no-landing scenario. But while that narrative is “correctly in vogue,” there’s also a risk of higher inflation and an increased cost of capital, the strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote.

The price action is “typical of bubbly markets,” according to Hartnett, who makes a comparison with the pre-tech bubble period of 1999. Current conditions imply investors should sell bonds and the US dollar, and buy Nasdaq shares and inflation hedges such as gold, commodities and crypto, the strategists write.

Equity markets have remained resilient in recent weeks despite a hawkish turn from Federal Reserve officials. Bond markets are now pricing between one and two rate cuts by the end of the year, compared with six just three months ago, yet both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are still hovering near record highs.

The Bank of America strategists say there’s a risk that a no-landing scenario will turn into a hard-landing scenario. That would mean monetary tightening resumes and contagion spreads from financial difficulties at regional banks and the real estate sector, according to the note.

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